Keeneland Race 2 - Race 2 - Mdn Special Weight
NIOSA (6) sets the standard after a solid second here, beaten a length and a half by Right In Time while fighting on. She was respected in the open market and, with race experience at this venue, she boasts the cleanest winning profile. GROVES (9) returns from a three-month break after a debut second at Saratoga, where she placed despite a sizable margin to Libby Lloyd. The 1408m is new for her, but the Mott stable makes her a genuine threat. FORGIVE ME (4) was beaten nine lengths on debut at Churchill Downs after leading, yet that run should improve her, and she received market support. OHANA LULU (1) offers consistency with placements in all three starts, ending her last campaign with two seconds at Ellis Park Turf. Her 100% place record gives her a solid each-way chance, though the 1408m may slightly hinder her against the top contenders.
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Returns from a three-month break after closing last campaign with two solid seconds at Ellis Park Turf, most recently beaten just over a length by Glycogen when near the top of betting. She had been favourite the start prior and again found the line evenly behind Smoke. Untried around 1408m, but three placings from three starts give her a dependable minor-money profile.
Last Starts 92 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/12 | 31/07/2026 | 27 | MDN F 2 | $142,653.00 | Ellis Park | 1710m | FM | Ben Curtis | 54kg | 1:43.18 | 6-1-2 | 8 |
| 1.3L | $4.23 |
| 2/8 | 04/07/2026 | 48 | MDN F 2 | $145,138.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | FM | Ben Curtis | 54kg | 1:35.59 | 6-3-2 | 5 |
| 3.0L | $2.28 |
| 2/6 | 17/05/2026 | - | MDN 2 | $160,754.00 | Woodbine Aw | 1006m | Fast | Jose Luis Campos | 53.5kg | 0:58.01 | 5-2-2 | 1 |
| 4.8L | $3.25 |
Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Back after two months on the sidelines following a plain debut at Kentucky, where she settled well back, was second last and finished well held behind Medinah. The market had her among the outsiders and there was no clear excuse in the run. Steven Asmussen's stable gives her some background respect, but the exposed form has to lift sharply.
Last Starts 52 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12 | 09/09/2026 | - | MDN F 2 | $236,111.00 | Kentucky | 1308m | FM | Keith J Asmussen | 54kg | 1:17.16 | 4-11-11 | 12 |
| 21.6L | $12.41 |
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Debuts for Cherie Devaux with enough pedigree depth to command respect, headed by half-sibling Rhyme Schemes, a G2 winner, and Commentate, a winner over 1408m. The trainer's debut strike-rate is solid and Jose Ortiz is a positive booking. With no race experience to assess, she profiles as a genuine placing chance rather than one to declare.
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Returns from a five-week freshening after showing good early speed on debut at Churchill Downs, where she led, held a narrow lead turning and then weakened to fifth, beaten nine lengths by Don'T Tell Mom. She was still near the top of an open market, so there was stable and betting respect. With that experience banked, she can take a meaningful step second-up.
Last Starts 41 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/8 | 20/09/2026 | - | MDN F 2 | $166,667.00 | Churchill Downs | 1308m | Fast | Tyler Gaffalione | 54kg | 1:18.00 | 3-2-5 | 6 |
| 9.0L | $8.87 |
Jockey: Gerardo Corrales
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Debuts for Dallas Stewart with limited public evidence to work from. The trainer-debut figures are fair without being compelling, and the trainer-sire record is modest from the small sample supplied. Half-sibling Heart'S Compass won three races, which gives some family substance, but this looks a tough ask without stronger race evidence.
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Placed on debut at this track over 1207m, beaten a length and a half by Right In Time after moving into the race and fighting on strongly. She was near the top of an open market and has already shown she can handle this venue. The rise to around 1408m is new, but that first run gives her the strongest exposed form and she is the one they have to beat.
Last Starts 28 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/12 | 03/10/2026 | - | MDN F 2 | $158,046.00 | Keeneland | 1207m | Fast | Tyler Gaffalione | 54kg | 1:11.57 | 4-2-2 | 1 |
| 1.5L | $5.82 |
Jockey: Luis Saez
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Debuts with Luis Saez booked, which is the clearest positive in an otherwise measured profile. The trainer-debut figures are modest, though the only supplied trainer-sire runner won, so there is at least a small pointer there. Her family has produced winners, but without race evidence she has to make a bigger first impression than several rivals.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Returns from a three-month break after finishing second on debut at Saratoga, beaten ten lengths by Libby Lloyd in a five-runner race. She settled just off the lead and worked home evenly, so there was professionalism even if the winner was clearly superior. Untried around 1408m, but market respect on debut and the Mott stable keep her high among the chances.
Last Starts 77 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/5 | 15/08/2026 | - | MDN F 2 | $164,051.00 | Saratoga | 1207m | Fast | Junior Alvarado | 56kg | 1:10.80 | 5-3-2 | 5 |
| 10.0L | $5.24 |
Jockey: Axel Concepcion
Weight: 54kgs
Stats
Comments
Debuts for Victoria Oliver with a light evidence base and no supplied sibling or trial pointers to strengthen the case. The trainer-debut record is just 4% winners and 16% placings from the listed sample, and barrier 10 adds another practical hurdle. She may improve with racing, but this looks a demanding starting point.