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Ellis Park Race 5 - Race 5 - Allowance

FRENCH BLUE (6) has been in the placings at her last two starts, finishing third last time when she was handy all the way over 1408m at Churchill Downs (Dirt). Has the class to figure prominently. RATIONAL THEORY (1) had been in top form landing two consecutive wins but last start missed the frame when sixth over 1106m at Churchill Downs Turf (Turf). Has good early speed so should take up a forward position. Will give a great sight. OVERCOME ADVERSITY (2) is a progressive galloper who is first-up since finishing 12th over 1710m at Oaklawn Park (Dirt) five months ago. Has never been out of the placings first up from two tries. Should be involved in the finish. VICKI ROSE (5) went forward and proved too strong last time, scoring with a nose to spare over 1207m at Churchill Downs (Dirt). Winning rider Luan Machado sticks. One of the better hopes.

Race Time:6:44 PM

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Track:Good

Weather:fine

Prize Money:$0.00

Distance:1207m

Rational Theory (1)x3472x2116

Trainer: Steven Asmussen 12 mths 12: 2-2-3

Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.

Weight: 55.5kgs

4 yo Bay M

Sire: PRACTICAL JOKE (USA)

Dam: AUNT DOROTHY (USA)

Dam's Sire: Uncle Mo

Stats

Prize Money$281,905.00

Avg $$23,492.08

Win %16.67%

Place %58.33%

Career12: 2-2-3

Track1: 0-1-0

Distance8: 2-2-2

Tr / Dist1: 0-1-0

1st Up4: 0-1-2

2nd Up3: 1-0-0

Firm8: 2-1-3

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Last start raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 9 at Churchill Downs Turf on June 12 over 1106m, 5 len behind Something Stronger with 56kg at $8.27. Before that won by 3 len at Churchill Downs May 25 over 1207m defeating Transatlantic with 56kg at $5.27. Can turn things around.

Last Starts 23 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
6/9	12/06/2026	18	ALLOW FM 3U	$177,127.00	Churchill Downs	1106m	FM	Keith J Asmussen	56kg	1:02.49	3-3-6	8	1. Something Stronger 2. Triskelion 3. Bourbon Notes	5.1L	$8.27
1/9	25/05/2026	46	ALLOW FM 3U	$115,922.00	Churchill Downs	1207m	Fast	Keith J Asmussen	56kg	1:11.85	2-1-1	2	1. Rational Theory 2. Transatlantic 3. Our Shenanigan	3.0L	$5.27
1/9	09/04/2026	34	MDN FM 3U	$160,116.00	Oaklawn Park	1207m	Fast	Erik Asmussen	56kg	1:11.06	1-1-1	7	1. Rational Theory 2. Cali Cream 3. Daring Madison	8.3L	$4.10
2/9	06/03/2026	245	MDN FM 3U	$154,494.00	Oaklawn Park	1207m	Fast	Erik Asmussen	56kg	1:09.96	1-2-2	1	1. She's A Gemma 2. Rational Theory 3. Quick To Charm	9.5L	$6.30
2/7	04/07/2025	27	MDN CLM FM 3U	$61,162.00	Ellis Park	1207m	Fast	Keith J Asmussen	54.5kg	1:10.23	1-2-2	7	1. Transatlantic 2. Rational Theory 3. Diagram	1.3L	$2.80
7/10	07/06/2025	49	MDN FM 3U	$186,625.00	Churchill Downs	1106m	FM	Keith J Asmussen	53.5kg	1:03.45	5-4-7	2	1. I'm Mo Joke 2. Lucy Mcgee 3. Girls Rock	2.8L	$22.92

Overcome Adversity (2)1x20x

Trainer: Matt A Shirer 12 mths 3: 1-1-0

Jockey: Francisco Arrieta

Weight: 55.5kgs

4 yo Bay M

Sire: MACLEAN'S MUSIC (USA)

Dam: WORLDLY HEIRESS (USA)

Dam's Sire: Wildcat Heir

Stats

Prize Money$134,324.00

Avg $$44,774.67

Win %33.33%

Place %66.67%

Career3: 1-1-0

Track0: 0-0-0

Distance0: 0-0-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up2: 1-1-0

2nd Up1: 0-0-0

Firm2: 0-1-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic1: 0-1-0

Comments

Has won previously first-up and resumes here after a break of five months. Finished off last preparation when last of 12 at Oaklawn Park February 7 over 1710m, 16 len behind Gowells Delight carrying 53kg at $2.80. When resuming last campaign second of 12 at Turfway Park December 17 over 1308m, 1.75 len behind Sea Runner with 53.5kg at $3.64. Definite winning hope.

Last Starts 148 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
12/12	07/02/2026	52	ALLOW FM 4U	$178,317.00	Oaklawn Park	1710m	Fast	Luis Saez	53kg	1:45.50	6-11-12	2	1. Gowells Delight 2. Floating Beauty 3. Vino Tiempo	16.8L	$2.80
2/12	17/12/2025	250	ALLOW FM 3U	$154,671.00	Turfway Park	1308m	Fast	Luan Machado	53.5kg	1:16.37	12-8-2	7	1. Sea Runner 2. Overcome Adversity 3. Carolina Candy	1.8L	$3.64
1/9	11/04/2025	-	MDN F 3	$175,719.00	Keeneland	1408m	Good	Joel Rosario	54.5kg	1:23.40	8-1-1	4	1. Overcome Adversity 2. Defiant Lass 3. Snowyte	2.3L	$18.22

True Princess (3)61x29x6x4x

Trainer: Lonnie Briley 12 mths 12: 2-1-1

Jockey: Gabriel Saez

Weight: 55.5kgs

5 yo Bay M

Sire: MAXIMUS MISCHIEF (USA)

Dam: RARAMURI PRINCESS (USA)

Dam's Sire: Northern Afleet

Stats

Prize Money$100,915.00

Avg $$8,409.58

Win %16.67%

Place %33.33%

Career12: 2-1-1

Track0: 0-0-0

Distance4: 1-0-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up5: 0-1-1

2nd Up3: 1-0-0

Firm8: 1-1-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Back from a long spell. Finished off last campaign 4th of 7 at Churchill Downs on September 20 over 1207m, 2.5 len behind Rose Alabama with 55kg at $17.64. First up last campaign ran second last of 7 at Oaklawn Park on December 21 2024 over 1207m, 11 len behind Sister Kisses with 53.5kg at $17.20. May need the run.

Last Starts 288 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
4/7	20/09/2025	273	ALLOW FM 3U	$94,801.00	Churchill Downs	1207m	Fast	Edgar Morales	55kg	1:10.40	1-2-4	7	1. Rose Alabama 2. Viral Plane Lady 3. Mezcalifornia	2.6L	$17.64
6/7	21/12/2024	104	ALLOW FM 3U	$103,236.00	Oaklawn Park	1207m	Fast	Travis Wales	53.5kg	1:10.83	2-5-6	3	1. Sister Kisses 2. Intermittent Fast 3. Malibu Smart	11.8L	$17.20
9/11	08/09/2024	58	ALLOW FM 3U	$279,412.00	Kentucky	1408m	FM	C Lanerie	53.5kg	1:20.46	7-10-9	2	1. Kehoe Beach 2. Kodiac Wintergreen 3. Candy Bar	22.1L	$21.74
2/6	12/07/2024	68	ALLOW FM 3U	$46,617.00	Evangeline Downs	1609m	Fast	Elio J Barrera	54kg	1:39.78	3-3-2	6	1. Lassie My Girl 2. True Princess 3. Huntleigh	0.8L	$3.00
1/10	05/05/2024	30	CLM FM 3U	$64,220.00	Oaklawn Park	1207m	SP	Travis Wales	53.5kg	1:10.72	2-1-1	7	1. True Princess 2. Toffee 3. Quiero Dinero	1.3L	$10.80
6/6	05/04/2024	70	LR OPEN F 3	$92,166.00	Evangeline Downs	1207m	Fast	Joel Dominguez	53kg	1:11.92	5-6-6	3	1. Guitar Solo 2. Fibber 3. Nana's Corn Muffin	20.0L	$18.40

If If If (4)2x1x

Trainer: Chris A Hartman 12 mths 2: 1-1-0

Jockey: Danny Sheehy

Weight: 53.5kgs

3 yo Chestnut F

Sire: BASIN (USA)

Dam: DOC MO'S DAUGHTER (USA)

Dam's Sire: Uncle Mo

Stats

Prize Money$81,152.00

Avg $$40,576.00

Win %50.00%

Place %100.00%

Career2: 1-1-0

Track0: 0-0-0

Distance1: 1-0-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up2: 1-1-0

2nd Up0: 0-0-0

Firm2: 1-1-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Resuming. Finished off last campaign scored a big 8 len win at Oaklawn Park April 18 over 1207m defeating She's Honed In with 55.5kg at $1.90. First up last campaign 2nd of 9 at Churchill Downs on May 31 2025 over 1006m, 0.8 len behind Quick Sand with 54kg at $3.33. Can return with a bold run.

Last Starts 78 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
1/6	18/04/2026	322	MDN CLM F 3	$87,336.00	Oaklawn Park	1207m	Fast	Keith J Asmussen	55.5kg	1:10.86	1-1-1	4	1. If If If 2. She's Honed In 3. Command The Stars	8.8L	$1.90
2/9	31/05/2025	-	MDN F 2	$143,750.00	Churchill Downs	1006m	Fast	Keith J Asmussen	54kg	0:58.87	7-4-2	8	1. Quick Sand 2. If If If 3. Simone	0.8L	$3.33

Vicki Rose (5)216x261241

Trainer: Pavel Matejka 12 mths 18: 3-5-1

Jockey: Luan Machado

Weight: 55.5kgs

6 yo Chestnut M

Sire: JIMMY CREED (USA)

Dam: PLANAR (USA)

Dam's Sire: Empire Maker

Stats

Prize Money$279,210.00

Avg $$15,511.67

Win %16.67%

Place %50.00%

Career18: 3-5-1

Track0: 0-0-0

Distance12: 3-3-1

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up5: 0-3-0

2nd Up4: 0-1-1

Firm14: 1-5-1

Good1: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic6: 1-1-1

Comments

Comes off a 44 day let-up. Last start came from midfield and won by a nose at Churchill Downs May 22 over 1207m defeating Ashkenazi with 56kg at $2.55. The run before that 4th of 11 at Turfway Park on March 28 over 1207m, 5 len behind Fancy Fascinator carrying 56kg at $5.66. Last-start winner who can measure up again.

Last Starts 44 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
1/5	22/05/2026	55	CLM FM 3U	$87,989.00	Churchill Downs	1207m	SP	Luan Machado	56kg	1:11.87	2-1-1	1	1. Vicki Rose 2. Ashkenazi 3. Sweet Bebsi	0.1L	$2.55
4/11	28/03/2026	35	CLM FM 3U	$55,618.00	Turfway Park	1207m	Fast	Dylan Silva Machado	56kg	1:10.07	4-2-4	9	1. Fancy Fascinator 2. Tiger Division 3. May May Strong	5.0L	$5.66
2/6	21/02/2026	45	CLM FM 3U	$56,491.00	Turfway Park	1207m	Fast	Dylan Silva Machado	56kg	1:13.78	3-1-2	1	1. Gold Del Mar 2. Vicki Rose 3. Beach Bunny	2.0L	$3.79
1/12	07/01/2026	51	CLM FM 4U	$51,570.00	Turfway Park	1207m	Fast	Dylan Silva Machado	55kg	1:12.08	4-1-1	5	1. Vicki Rose 2. Atlantic Passage 3. Mindy's Union	0.5L	$6.45
6/8	17/11/2025	14	ALLOW FM 3U	$27,481.00	Mountaineer Park	1106m	Fast	A Murgia	56kg	1:05.75	2-3-6	1	1. Dreaming Of Hope 2. Anhinga 3. Miss Jane Planar	10.5L	$4.70
2/5	03/11/2025	145	ALLOW FM 3U	$27,481.00	Mountaineer Park	1106m	Fast	A Murgia	56kg	1:05.54	2-1-2	5	1. Isabel Ludlow 2. Vicki Rose 3. Maci's World	0.1L	$2.90

French Blue (6)135523

Trainer: Bob Baffert (California Usa)12 mths 6: 1-1-2

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Weight: 53.5kgs

3 yo Bay F

Sire: GUN RUNNER (USA)

Dam: TWENTY CARAT (USA)

Dam's Sire: Into Mischief

Stats

Prize Money$143,965.00

Avg $$23,994.17

Win %16.67%

Place %66.67%

Career6: 1-1-2

Track0: 0-0-0

Distance2: 1-1-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up1: 1-0-0

2nd Up1: 0-0-1

Firm6: 1-1-2

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Form hard to fault. Last start made ground from midfield; 3rd of 10 at Churchill Downs on June 20 over 1408m, 1.0 len behind Going Steady with 53.5kg at $4.18. The race before that 2nd of 8 at Churchill Downs on May 28 over 1207m, 5 len behind Where Luck Lives carrying 53.5kg at $3.90. Top chance on her best efforts.

Last Starts 15 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
3/10	20/06/2026	23	ALLOW FM 3U	$177,127.00	Churchill Downs	1408m	Fast	I Ortiz Jr	53.5kg	1:23.63	5-1-3	5	1. Going Steady 2. Moonlight Dash 3. French Blue	1.0L	$4.18
2/8	28/05/2026	27	ALLOW OCLM F 3	$177,374.00	Churchill Downs	1207m	Fast	I Ortiz Jr	53.5kg	1:10.03	5-2-2	8	1. Where Luck Lives 2. French Blue 3. Kayla's Komet	5.3L	$3.90
5/8	01/05/2026	27	ALLOW OCLM F 3	$177,374.00	Churchill Downs	1308m	Fast	Flavien Prat	53.5kg	1:16.05	4-3-5	7	1. Carmel Coast 2. Paige Turner 3. Our Two Girls	7.0L	$3.94
5/7	04/04/2026	27	G2 OPEN F 3	$291,121.00	Santa Anita Park	1710m	Fast	Florent Geroux	56kg	1:43.99	4-5-5	3	1. Meaning 2. Brooklyn Blonde 3. Bank Shot	24.3L	$6.20
3/7	08/03/2026	59	G3 OPEN F 3	$140,449.00	Santa Anita Park	1710m	Fast	Florent Geroux	54.5kg	1:44.79	4-2-3	3	1. Forced Entry 2. Bank Shot 3. French Blue	3.3L	$3.50
1/10	08/01/2026	-	MDN F 3	$104,634.00	Santa Anita Park	1207m	Fast	J J Hernandez	55.5kg	1:11.21	3-1-1	10	1. French Blue 2. Feisty Red Head 3. Piney Woods	2.3L	$1.60