Ellis Park Race 8 - Ky Downs Preview Nashville Derby Stakes
EMERGENCE (7) finished third when resuming two runs back at Churchill Downs (Turf) then progressed nicely last time out to score by 14 lengths as public elect over 2414m at Churchill Downs (Dirt). Finds a tougher race but another big run will not surprise. ESMARK (5) was beaten for speed off the rails draw last start then hit the line hard to score over 1710m at Churchill Downs (Turf). Should be in the finish again. NATIVE RUNNER (4) is racing well. Scored at Churchill Downs (Turf) two back then finished second, beaten half a length, over 1710m in Listed grade at Churchill Downs (Turf) at the latest appearance five weeks ago. Should be thereabouts again. SIESTA KEY (9) opened this campaign last start with a fourth, beaten 1.1 lengths, over 1710m at Churchill Downs. Has an imposing record of two wins from four starts. Serious contender.

Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
First-up. Finished off last preparation when last of 8 at Churchill Downs in the LR May 31 over 1811m, 42 len behind World Beater with 53.5kg at $6.01. Previous preparation first-up won by 0.8 len Keeneland April 12 over 1609m defeating States' Rights with 53.5kg at $6.96.
Last Starts 62 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8/8 | 31/05/2025 | 49 | LR OPEN 3 | $429,688.00 | Churchill Downs | 1811m | FM | C Lanerie | 53.5kg | 1:47.39 | 8-8-8 | 4 |
| 42.5L | $6.01 |
1/12 | 12/04/2025 | 155 | ALLOW 3 | $191,693.00 | Keeneland | 1609m | Good | C Lanerie | 53.5kg | 1:37.74 | 11-5-1 | 6 |
| 0.8L | $6.96 |
3/12 | 08/11/2024 | 34 | ALLOW 2 | $193,303.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | C Lanerie | 54.5kg | 1:42.77 | 4-5-3 | 3 |
| 0.8L | $7.71 |
5/11 | 05/10/2024 | 21 | G1 OPEN 2 | $867,052.00 | Keeneland | 1710m | Fast | C Lanerie | 55.5kg | 1:43.17 | 9-4-5 | 7 |
| 11.8L | $46.10 |
4/11 | 14/09/2024 | 47 | G3 OPEN 2 | $441,176.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | Fast | C Lanerie | 55.5kg | 1:36.08 | 8-5-4 | 10 |
| 7.8L | $22.86 |
1/12 | 29/07/2024 | - | MDN 2 | $106,767.00 | Ellis Park | 1207m | M | C Lanerie | 54kg | 1:11.97 | 12-4-1 | 2 |
| 1.8L | $6.29 |

Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
At the latest run won by 1.5 len at this track July 5 over 1710m defeating Sing Sing carrying 54.5kg at $8.29. Before that 5th of 11 at Churchill Downs on June 7 over 1609m, 5 len behind Native Runner with 53.5kg at $13.26.
Last Starts 27 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/9 | 05/07/2025 | 28 | ALLOW OCLM 3 | $155,963.00 | Ellis Park | 1710m | FM | Keith J Asmussen | 54.5kg | 1:40.16 | 2-1-1 | 3 |
| 1.5L | $8.29 |
5/11 | 07/06/2025 | 35 | ALLOW OCLM 3 | $197,512.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | FM | Keith J Asmussen | 53.5kg | 1:35.08 | 1-3-5 | 3 |
| 4.8L | $13.26 |
8/10 | 03/05/2025 | 42 | ALLOW OCLM 3 | $198,438.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | SP | Jose Ortiz | 53.5kg | 1:42.83 | 7-6-8 | 8 |
| 13.1L | $22.26 |
10/10 | 22/03/2025 | 35 | G2 OPEN 3 | $1,584,786.00 | Fairgrounds | 1911m | Fast | Ben Curtis | 55.5kg | 1:56.20 | 4-10-10 | 4 |
| 51.6L | $43.00 |
1/9 | 15/02/2025 | 28 | MDN 3 | $88,567.00 | Fairgrounds | 1710m | Fast | Keith J Asmussen | 54.5kg | 1:44.49 | 2-1-1 | 5 |
| 2.0L | $12.20 |
5/9 | 18/01/2025 | 28 | MDN 3 | $96,774.00 | Fairgrounds | 1710m | SP | Lanfranco Dettori | 54.5kg | 1:46.33 | 5-2-5 | 1 |
| 8.3L | $3.70 |

Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Dual acceptor. Third-up today and won third-up in the past. Resuming 2nd of 7 at Gulfstream Park on June 6 over 1673m, 6 len behind Iron Hand with 55kg at $6.70. Last start 3rd of 8 at Gulfstream Park in LR on July 5 over 1673m, 3.5 len behind Prevent with 52.5kg at $25.70.
Last Starts 27 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3/8 | 05/07/2025 | 29 | LR OPEN 3U | $114,679.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1673m | Fast | Jonathan Ocasio | 52.5kg | 1:39.31 | 1-4-3 | 1 |
| 3.5L | $25.70 |
2/7 | 06/06/2025 | 156 | ALLOW 3 | $90,202.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1673m | Fast | Jonathan Ocasio | 55kg | 1:40.50 | 5-2-2 | 1 |
| 5.8L | $6.70 |
4/7 | 01/01/2025 | 33 | LR OPEN 3 | $266,129.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1673m | Fast | Joe Bravo | 54.5kg | 1:39.17 | 7-5-4 | 2 |
| 3.8L | $12.40 |
5/10 | 29/11/2024 | 27 | LR OPEN 2 | $175,038.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1509m | FM | Joe Bravo | 54.5kg | 1:27.06 | 6-6-5 | 10 |
| 7.8L | $15.30 |
7/10 | 02/11/2024 | 22 | LR OPEN 2 | $144,597.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1609m | Good | Joe Bravo | 55.5kg | 1:35.04 | 6-7-7 | 10 |
| 8.8L | $3.40 |
1/6 | 11/10/2024 | 12 | ALLOW OCLM 2 | $88,150.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1673m | Fast | Joe Bravo | 54.5kg | 1:41.46 | 3-1-1 | 1 |
| 2.3L | $2.30 |

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Racing well recently. Comes off a 35 day let-up. Most recently 2nd in a small field at Churchill Downs in LR on June 28 over 1710m, 0.5 len behind Minaret Station with 53.5kg at $8.74. The run before that won by a 0.3 len at Churchill Downs June 7 over 1609m defeating Anegada carrying 53.5kg at $29.02.
Last Starts 34 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/5 | 28/06/2025 | 21 | LR OPEN 3 | $388,802.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 53.5kg | 1:44.29 | 3-4-2 | 4 |
| 0.5L | $8.74 |
1/11 | 07/06/2025 | 56 | ALLOW OCLM 3 | $197,512.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | FM | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 53.5kg | 1:35.08 | 9-5-1 | 6 |
| 0.3L | $29.02 |
6/7 | 12/04/2025 | 25 | G3 OPEN 3 | $638,978.00 | Keeneland | 1710m | Fast | Jose Ortiz | 56kg | 1:44.15 | 6-7-6 | 4 |
| 10.8L | $14.93 |
1/5 | 18/03/2025 | 26 | HCP 3 | $44,374.00 | Fairgrounds | 1673m | Fast | Jose Ortiz | 55.5kg | 1:41.70 | 3-1-1 | 1 |
| 4.3L | $2.90 |
1/9 | 20/02/2025 | 31 | MDN OCLM 3 | $46,699.00 | Fairgrounds | 1710m | Fast | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 55.5kg | 1:45.89 | 7-2-1 | 6 |
| 0.1L | $3.40 |
10/12 | 20/01/2025 | 30 | MDN 3 | $93,548.00 | Fairgrounds | 1710m | Good | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 54.5kg | 1:45.05 | 7-11-10 | 1 |
| 11.1L | $26.90 |

Jockey: Luan Machado
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Chasing a hat-trick. Comes off a 43 day let-up. Most recently won by a nose at Churchill Downs June 20 over 1710m defeating Seven Wonders carrying 54.5kg at $2.84. Before that came from midfield and won by 1.0 len at Churchill Downs May 26 over 1710m defeating War And Majesty carrying 53.5kg at $6.12.
Last Starts 42 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/8 | 20/06/2025 | 25 | ALLOW 3U | $197,512.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Luis Saez | 54.5kg | 1:40.67 | 5-5-1 | 1 |
| 0.1L | $2.84 |
1/12 | 26/05/2025 | 43 | MDN 3U | $187,500.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Junior Alvarado | 53.5kg | 1:41.07 | 7-2-1 | 6 |
| 1.0L | $6.12 |
6/12 | 13/04/2025 | 225 | MDN 3 | $175,719.00 | Keeneland | 1710m | FM | John R Velazquez | 54.5kg | 1:41.71 | 9-5-6 | 7 |
| 8.8L | $15.98 |
3/12 | 31/08/2024 | - | MDN 2 | $261,137.00 | Kentucky | 1207m | FM | John R Velazquez | 54kg | 1:10.02 | 11-6-3 | 10 |
| 3.5L | $20.17 |

Jockey: Joseph Ramos
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Third-up today. Freshened for 41 days. Resuming 2nd of 11 at Churchill Downs on May 26 over 1609m, 1.5 len behind Racing Driver carrying 54.5kg at $8.89. Last start won by 5.5 len at Churchill Downs June 22 over 1509m defeating Art Fair with 54.5kg at $1.92.
Last Starts 40 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/6 | 22/06/2025 | 27 | ALLOW 3 | $129,082.00 | Churchill Downs | 1509m | Fast | Luan Machado | 54.5kg | 1:27.83 | 5-1-1 | 1 |
| 5.5L | $1.92 |
2/11 | 26/05/2025 | 65 | ALLOW 3 | $129,688.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | Fast | Luan Machado | 54.5kg | 1:36.71 | 7-5-2 | 6 |
| 1.5L | $8.89 |
6/8 | 22/03/2025 | 36 | LR OPEN 3 | $396,197.00 | Turfway Park | 1710m | Fast | Adam Beschizza | 54.5kg | 1:45.92 | 5-5-6 | 5 |
| 6.5L | $6.49 |
1/7 | 14/02/2025 | 21 | MDN 3 | $66,345.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Adam Beschizza | 54.5kg | 1:39.60 | 2-2-1 | 2 |
| 1.0L | $1.96 |
2/12 | 24/01/2025 | 65 | MDN 3 | $66,452.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Luan Machado | 54.5kg | 1:39.61 | 6-1-2 | 8 |
| 0.3L | $4.08 |
5/7 | 20/11/2024 | 24 | MDN 2 | $140,030.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | Fast | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | 54kg | 1:45.20 | 4-5-5 | 1 |
| 10.8L | $2.14 |

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Third-up today. Resumes off a 50 day letup. First-up 3rd of 9 at Churchill Downs on May 9 over 1710m, 4 len behind Tomasello with 53.5kg at $6. Second-up won by 14 len at Churchill Downs June 13 over 2414m defeating Domingo with 53.5kg at $2.72. Racing well.
Last Starts 49 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/8 | 13/06/2025 | 35 | ALLOW 3U | $197,512.00 | Churchill Downs | 2414m | SP | Vincent Cheminaud | 53.5kg | 2:31.72 | 6-1-1 | 5 |
| 14.5L | $2.72 |
3/9 | 09/05/2025 | 69 | ALLOW OCLM 3 | $198,438.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Lanfranco Dettori | 53.5kg | 1:40.61 | 9-4-3 | 7 |
| 3.8L | $6.00 |
8/10 | 01/03/2025 | 28 | LR OPEN 3 | $345,104.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1609m | FM | Luis Saez | 53.5kg | 1:32.51 | 8-9-8 | 9 |
| 12.1L | $7.90 |
1/10 | 01/02/2025 | - | MDN 3 | $151,613.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1710m | Fast | Luis Saez | 53.5kg | 1:42.82 | 8-1-1 | 7 |
| 3.3L | $8.80 |

Jockey: Fernando De La Cruz
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Resuming after a nine weeks break. Finished off last campaign third of 8 at Churchill Downs in the LR May 31 over 1811m, 2.5 len behind World Beater with 53.5kg at $8.83. On debut sixth of 11 at Churchill Downs November 23 over 1308m, 11 len behind Mo Quality carrying 54kg at $17.42.
Last Starts 62 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3/8 | 31/05/2025 | 22 | LR OPEN 3 | $429,688.00 | Churchill Downs | 1811m | FM | Jose Ortiz | 53.5kg | 1:47.39 | 3-2-3 | 1 |
| 2.5L | $8.83 |
1/9 | 09/05/2025 | 31 | ALLOW OCLM 3 | $198,438.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Jose Ortiz | 54.5kg | 1:40.61 | 2-1-1 | 4 |
| 0.1L | $2.92 |
1/12 | 08/04/2025 | 45 | MDN 3 | $175,719.00 | Keeneland | 1811m | Good | Jose Ortiz | 54.5kg | 1:51.54 | 1-1-1 | 1 |
| 3.0L | $3.95 |
2/10 | 22/02/2025 | 35 | MDN 3 | $151,369.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1509m | FM | Javier Castellano | 53.5kg | 1:27.97 | 5-3-2 | 6 |
| 0.8L | $3.90 |
2/11 | 18/01/2025 | 35 | MDN 3 | $151,613.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1710m | Fast | Javier Castellano | 53.5kg | 1:42.62 | 8-1-2 | 11 |
| 0.3L | $5.80 |
3/12 | 14/12/2024 | 21 | MDN 2 | $123,267.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | Fast | Fernando De La Cruz | 54kg | 1:10.28 | 6-5-3 | 4 |
| 3.0L | $8.77 |

Jockey: Florent Geroux
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Second-up. First-up after nine months in a small field at Churchill Downs in LR on June 28 over 1710m, 1.1 len behind Minaret Station with 53.5kg at $8.28. Previously second-up won by a 0.1 len at Colonial Downs LR September 7 over 1710m defeating Aristotle carrying 54.5kg at $2.10.
Last Starts 34 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4/5 | 28/06/2025 | 265 | LR OPEN 3 | $388,802.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Flavien Prat | 53.5kg | 1:44.29 | 5-2-4 | 2 |
| 1.1L | $8.28 |
8/12 | 06/10/2024 | 29 | G2 OPEN 2 | $505,780.00 | Keeneland | 1710m | FM | Luan Machado | 54.5kg | 1:42.28 | 12-8-8 | 3 |
| 9.6L | $18.47 |
1/8 | 07/09/2024 | 37 | LR OPEN 2 | $183,824.00 | Colonial Downs | 1710m | FM | Manuel Franco | 54.5kg | 1:44.66 | 7-3-1 | 3 |
| 0.1L | $2.10 |
1/8 | 01/08/2024 | - | MDN 2 | $49,155.00 | Indiana Downs | 1609m | Fast | Axel Concepcion | 54.5kg | 1:40.63 | 5-3-1 | 5 |
| 1.0L | $2.10 |