Churchill Downs Race 7 - Race 7 - Mdn Claiming
MOST PROBABLE (3) is a 10-start maiden who finished fourth at his most recent appearance over 1308m at Keeneland (Dirt). Among the top chances in what looks a most suitable race. HARRY HOUDINI (6) finished 23 lengths adrift in tenth when fresh from a layoff last start over 1207m at Keeneland (Dirt). Sure to strip fitter this time around. Should park just off the speed. Likely to feature. OBRA PRIMA (7) returned from a spell two months ago when he was beaten 9 lengths into fifth over 1710m at this track. Strips fitter and can go on to take this out. CONSEQUENTIAL (1) is a nine-start maiden who finished fourth, beaten 7 lengths, when resuming from a spell last start over 1811m at Keeneland (Dirt). Should progress from that last outing and poses a genuine threat.
Jockey: Miguel Fernandez
Weight: 52.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Second run back. First-up after six months 4th of 8 at Keeneland on October 22 over 1811m, 7 len behind My King Air with 52kg at $12.18. Previously second-up 4th in a small field at Turfway Park on March 13 over 1710m, 9 len behind Aguila Negra with 54.5kg at $3.20. Improver with definite claims.
Last Starts 21 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/8 | 22/10/2026 | 168 | MDN CLM 3U | $68,966.00 | Keeneland | 1811m | Fast | Miguel Fernandez | 52kg | 1:52.03 | 1-3-4 | 2 |
| 7.5L | $12.18 |
| 4/7 | 07/05/2026 | 55 | MDN CLM 3U | $79,609.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | Fast | Florent Geroux | 53.5kg | 1:35.76 | 4-4-4 | 1 |
| 7.3L | $14.63 |
| 4/6 | 13/03/2026 | 28 | MDN CLM 3 | $52,247.00 | Turfway Park | 1710m | Fast | Joseph D Ramos | 54.5kg | 1:46.23 | 5-4-4 | 6 |
| 9.5L | $3.20 |
| 4/12 | 13/02/2026 | 75 | MDN CLM 3 | $53,067.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Joseph D Ramos | 54.5kg | 1:42.85 | 9-6-4 | 10 |
| 3.5L | $18.09 |
| 6/11 | 30/11/2025 | 28 | MDN CLM 2 | $102,290.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | Fast | Erik Asmussen | 54kg | 1:46.59 | 8-7-6 | 9 |
| 8.8L | $3.89 |
| 2/7 | 02/11/2025 | 15 | MDN CLM 2 | $87,023.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | Fast | Emmanuel Esquivel | 54kg | 1:46.04 | 2-2-2 | 1 |
| 1.5L | $3.96 |
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Weight: 55kgs
Stats
Comments
Comes off a 45 day let-up. Most recently 6th of 8 at Horseshoe Indianapolis Turf on September 28 over 1609m, 8 len behind Blazy with 54.5kg at $9.50. The race before that held ground to the line 3rd of 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis Turf on September 3 over 1609m, 0.8 len behind Mcginnis carrying 54.5kg at $66.10. May need more time.
Last Starts 45 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8 | 28/09/2026 | 25 | MDN 3U | $44,444.00 | Indiana Downs | 1609m | FM | Santo Sanjur | 54.5kg | 1:34.35 | 5-4-6 | 8 |
| 8.5L | $9.50 |
| 3/12 | 03/09/2026 | 15 | MDN CLM 3U | $25,678.00 | Indiana Downs | 1609m | FM | Santo Sanjur | 54.5kg | 1:35.54 | 2-1-D2 | 2 |
| 0.8L | $66.10 |
| 8/8 | 19/08/2026 | - | MDN CLM 3U | $24,964.00 | Indiana Downs | 1207m | Fast | Gabriel Saez | 54.5kg | 1:11.38 | 5-8-8 | 6 |
| 14.3L | $16.70 |
Jockey: John Mckee
Weight: 55kgs
Stats
Comments
At the latest run 4th of 8 at Keeneland on October 23 over 1308m, 5 len behind Boss' Deed carrying 55kg at $19.99. The run before that 5th of 7 at Belterra Park Turf on October 3 over 1609m, 3 len behind Delgany Boy with 55kg at $15.40. Made headway last time. Top chance.
Last Starts 20 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/8 | 23/10/2026 | 20 | MDN CLM 3U | $76,149.00 | Keeneland | 1308m | Fast | J Mckee | 55kg | 1:18.39 | 5-5-4 | 5 |
| 4.8L | $19.99 |
| 5/7 | 03/10/2026 | 16 | MDN 3U | $18,678.00 | Belterra Park Turf | 1609m | FM | J Mckee | 55kg | 1:36.81 | 3-5-5 | 1 |
| 3.0L | $15.40 |
| 2/4 | 17/09/2026 | 7 | MDN CLM 3U | $14,583.00 | Belterra Park | 1308m | Fast | Jj Meza | 55kg | 1:17.41 | 3-2-2 | 4 |
| 0.3L | $4.50 |
| 2/4 | 10/09/2026 | 14 | MDN CLM 3U | $13,194.00 | Belterra Park | 1006m | Good | Jj Meza | 55kg | 0:59.33 | 1-1-2 | 1 |
| 0.3L | $2.30 |
| 2/5 | 27/08/2026 | 237 | MDN CLM 3U | $13,552.00 | Belterra Park Turf | 1006m | FM | Jj Meza | 55kg | 0:58.18 | 1-3-2 | 5 |
| 4.0L | $3.40 |
| 9/12 | 02/01/2026 | 29 | MDN CLM 3 | $55,605.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Carlos Barbosa | 54.5kg | 1:39.89 | 6-8-9 | 8 |
| 18.4L | $8.92 |
Jockey: Declan Cannon
Weight: 56kgs
Stats
Comments
Third-up today. First-up ran second last of 12 at Churchill Downs Turf on September 13 over 1811m, 10 len behind Spun Legacy carrying 56kg at $26.44. Second run from a spell 9th of 11 at Keeneland on October 16 over 1207m, 17 len behind Dontworryboutnothn carrying 56kg at $62.73. Prefer to watch at this stage.
Last Starts 27 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/11 | 16/10/2026 | 33 | MDN CLM 3U | $79,023.00 | Keeneland | 1207m | Fast | Jareth Loveberry | 56kg | 1:11.18 | 8-10-9 | 11 |
| 17.0L | $62.73 |
| 11/12 | 13/09/2026 | 120 | MDN CLM 3U | $93,056.00 | Churchill Downs | 1811m | FM | Jareth Loveberry | 56kg | 1:49.08 | 8-9-11 | 9 |
| 10.9L | $26.44 |
| 5/6 | 16/05/2026 | 49 | MDN CLM 3U | $93,575.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | SP | Martin Garcia | 56.5kg | 1:45.39 | 5-5-5 | 2 |
| 8.1L | $13.95 |
| 6/11 | 28/03/2026 | 23 | MDN 3U | $140,449.00 | Turfway Park | 2414m | Fast | Dylan Silva Machado | 57kg | 2:32.31 | 4-7-6 | 1 |
| 9.3L | $61.02 |
| 5/6 | 05/03/2026 | 320 | MDN CLM 3U | $55,618.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Dylan Silva Machado | 57kg | 1:38.94 | 3-5-5 | 2 |
| 10.5L | $10.19 |
| 7/8 | 19/04/2025 | - | MDN 3U | $127,796.00 | Belmont At The Big A | 1609m | Fast | Katie Davis | 53.5kg | 1:34.99 | 8-8-7 | 2 |
| 38.4L | $48.00 |
Jockey: Walter A. Rodriguez
Weight: 56kgs
Stats
Comments
At the latest run came from midfield; 3rd of 10 at this track on October 29 over 1207m, 8 len behind King Of Heat carrying 56kg at $55.69. The run before that 4th in a small field at this track on September 23 over 1308m, 8 len behind Hodl Hard carrying 56kg at $12. Take on trust.
Last Starts 14 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10 | 29/10/2026 | 36 | MDN CLM 3U | $68,966.00 | Churchill Downs | 1207m | Fast | Walter A Rodriguez | 56kg | 1:10.86 | 6-8-3 | 5 |
| 8.0L | $55.69 |
| 4/6 | 23/09/2026 | 22 | MDN CLM 3U | $66,667.00 | Churchill Downs | 1308m | Fast | Yedsit Hazlewood | 56kg | 1:17.49 | 1-5-4 | 5 |
| 8.5L | $12.00 |
| 6/8 | 01/09/2026 | 247 | MDN CLM 3U | $25,678.00 | Indiana Downs | 1207m | Fast | Walter A Rodriguez | 56kg | 1:11.18 | 7-7-6 | 1 |
| 6.5L | $7.40 |
| 6/9 | 28/12/2025 | 28 | MDN CLM 3U | $47,473.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | Fast | Israel Hernandez | 55.5kg | 1:11.44 | 5-7-6 | 7 |
| 10.5L | $10.70 |
| 3/11 | 30/11/2025 | 16 | MDN CLM 3U | $73,282.00 | Churchill Downs | 1408m | Fast | Walter A Rodriguez | 55.5kg | 1:23.77 | 1-7-3 | 3 |
| 7.3L | $24.18 |
| 4/10 | 14/11/2025 | 16 | MDN CLM 3U | $73,282.00 | Churchill Downs | 1207m | Fast | Walter A Rodriguez | 55.5kg | 1:11.98 | 1-4-4 | 10 |
| 2.1L | $58.48 |
Jockey: Guillermo Rodriguez
Weight: 56kgs
Stats
Comments
Second run back. First-up after two years ran second last of 11 at Keeneland on October 16 over 1207m, 23 len behind Dontworryboutnothn carrying 56kg at $8.92. Previously second-up 4th of 8 at Santa Anita on October 12 2024 over 1710m, 12 len behind Mirahmadi with 55kg at $14.10. Improvement likely and looks a big chance.
Last Starts 27 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | 16/10/2026 | 705 | MDN CLM 3U | $79,023.00 | Keeneland | 1207m | Fast | Guillermo Rodriguez | 56kg | 1:11.18 | 4-9-10 | 7 |
| 23.5L | $8.92 |
| 3/6 | 10/11/2024 | 29 | MDN 3U | $82,192.00 | Del Mar | 1609m | Fast | Antonio Fresu | 55.5kg | 1:35.58 | 3-2-3 | 4 |
| 9.3L | $3.20 |
| 4/8 | 12/10/2024 | 34 | MDN 35 | $78,035.00 | Santa Anita Park | 1710m | Fast | Abel Cedillo | 55kg | 1:43.75 | 2-2-4 | 8 |
| 12.3L | $14.10 |
| 5/10 | 08/09/2024 | 448 | MDN 3U | $110,294.00 | Del Mar | 1207m | Fast | Hector Isaac Berrios | 55kg | 1:09.83 | 2-2-5 | 2 |
| 6.3L | $6.30 |
| 3/6 | 18/06/2023 | - | MDN 2 | $93,558.00 | Santa Anita Park | 1006m | Fast | Joe Bravo | 53.5kg | 0:57.29 | 4-3-3 | 1 |
| 12.0L | $8.70 |
Jockey: Luan Machado
Weight: 55kgs
Stats
Comments
Second-up. First start 5th of 9 at Tampa Bay Downs Turf on April 18 over 1609m, 8 len behind Six O Clock with 54kg at $2.60. Went for a break before returning 5th of 10 at this track on September 11 over 1710m, 9 len behind Roguishness carrying 54.5kg at $37.41. Fitter for recent racing and is a winning hope.
Last Starts 62 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/10 | 11/09/2026 | 146 | MDN CLM 3U | $79,167.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | Good | Luan Machado | 54.5kg | 1:45.40 | 7-5-5 | 7 |
| 9.6L | $37.41 |
| 5/9 | 18/04/2026 | - | MDN 3 | $80,058.00 | Tampa Bay Downs | 1609m | FM | Samuel Marin | 54kg | 1:38.49 | 7-6-5 | 2 |
| 8.3L | $2.60 |
Jockey: Jaime A. Torres
Weight: 56kgs
Stats
Comments
Resumes after a break of ten weeks and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last campaign tenth of 12 at Kentucky September 3 over 2414m, 28 len behind Lahainaluna carrying 56kg at $15.25. Previously first up; second of 12 at Ellis Park Turf July 6 over 1710m, a 0.1 lengths behind Bearister with 56kg at $3.90. Expect a forward showing.
Last Starts 70 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12 | 03/09/2026 | 59 | MDN 3U | $242,511.00 | Kentucky | 2414m | FM | Adam Beschizza | 56kg | 2:30.30 | 2-10-10 | 3 |
| 28.6L | $15.25 |
| 2/12 | 06/07/2026 | 218 | MDN CLM 3U | $54,427.00 | Ellis Park | 1710m | FM | Axel Concepcion | 56kg | 1:42.11 | 3-3-2 | 4 |
| 0.1L | $3.90 |
| 8/8 | 30/11/2025 | 29 | MDN CLM 3U | $105,344.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | Fast | Adam Beschizza | 55kg | 1:44.47 | 8-8-8 | 4 |
| 52.1L | $8.64 |
| 9/12 | 01/11/2025 | 24 | MDN 3U | $183,206.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Adam Beschizza | 55kg | 1:42.18 | 12-9-9 | 7 |
| 9.1L | $12.47 |
| 5/10 | 08/10/2025 | 41 | MDN 3U | $167,428.00 | Keeneland | 1811m | Good | Luan Machado | 54.5kg | 1:50.89 | 3-2-5 | 10 |
| 6.8L | $12.35 |
| 5/12 | 28/08/2025 | - | MDN 3U | $263,566.00 | Kentucky | 1609m | FM | Axel Concepcion | 54.5kg | 1:34.30 | 11-5-5 | 6 |
| 8.5L | $76.16 |