Form Guide | Today, Tomorrow & Saturday

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Churchill Downs Race 4 - Race 4 - Claiming

WATERSHED MOMENT (2) scored at Keeneland (Dirt) last time out with 9 lengths to spare over today's journey. Has a sound record at this journey with a win and two minor placings. Expected to measure up. WILL BELIEVE (5) is usually thereabouts but finds it hard to win, with only one victory from 10 starts. Again tasted defeat last start when tenth over 1408m at Kentucky, beaten 9 lengths. The engagement of Jareth Loveberry is a positive move. Ideally placed and is sure to play a pivotal role. MUSTANG LADY (4) finds it hard to win with just one success from 37 starts. Did a good job last start to finish third over 1308m at this track, beaten 1.75 lengths. In the right race and there is no reason she cannot get the major prize. QUINN'S PROMISE (3) hasn't been able to break through for an extended period, the latest effort a sixth over 1710m at Keeneland (Dirt). Likely improver with strong prospects.

Race Time:6:25 PM

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Track:Firm

Weather:Fine

Prize Money:$0.00

Distance:1710m

French Mistress (1)6x1xp3

Trainer: Jeff Hiles (USA)12 mths 4: 1-0-1

Jockey: Jaime A. Torres

Weight: 55kgs

4 yo Grey/Roan M

Sire: CAIRO PRINCE (USA)

Dam: QUEST (GB)

Dam's Sire: Mr. Sidney

Stats

Prize Money$27,879.00

Avg $$6,969.75

Win %25.00%

Place %50.00%

Career4: 1-0-1

Track0: 0-0-0

Distance2: 0-0-1

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up3: 1-0-0

2nd Up1: 0-0-1

Firm3: 1-0-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic1: 0-0-0

Comments

Third-up today. First-up didn't finish the race at Ellis Park Turf August 22 over 1710m. Second run from a spell 3rd in a small field at Keeneland on October 11 over 1710m, 10 len behind Love Knicks Hart with 55.5kg at $10.25. Take on trust.

Last Starts 19 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
3/6	11/10/2026	50	CLM FM 3U	$83,333.00	Keeneland	1710m	SP	Jaime A Torres	55.5kg	1:46.61	3-3-3	4	1. Love Knicks Hart 2. Oraia 3. French Mistress	10.3L	$10.25
10/10	22/08/2026	231	ALLOW FM 3U	$145,506.00	Ellis Park	1710m	FM	Jim Graham	56kg	1:40.37	8-10-PU	2	1. Spin A Tune 2. Jalila 3. High South	99.0L	$29.07
1/9	03/01/2026	349	MDN CLM FM 4U	$35,127.00	Tampa Bay Downs	1710m	FM	Samy Camacho	56kg	1:44.68	6-1-1	6	1. French Mistress 2. Jersey Joyce 3. Addagirl Addie	3.0L	$1.30
6/9	19/01/2025	-	MDN F 3	$151,613.00	Gulfstream Park	1710m	Fast	Joel Rosario	53.5kg	1:42.64	4-5-6	2	1. Smudge 2. Hereforagoodtime 3. Green Jobs	6.1L	$10.10

Watershed Moment (2)9x52224x51

Trainer: Robert Medina (USA)12 mths 12: 1-3-0

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Weight: 56kgs

4 yo Bay M

Sire: OMAHA BEACH (USA)

Dam: TIZ BRISKA (USA)

Dam's Sire: Tiznow

Stats

Prize Money$93,350.00

Avg $$7,779.17

Win %8.33%

Place %33.33%

Career12: 1-3-0

Track2: 0-1-0

Distance3: 1-2-0

Tr / Dist1: 0-1-0

1st Up5: 0-0-0

2nd Up4: 1-1-0

Firm12: 1-3-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up 5th of 9 at Ellis Park on August 23 over 1308m, 7 len behind She's Gotta Go carrying 56kg at $2.93. Last start won by 9 len at Keeneland on October 9 over 1710m defeating Lunar Loop with 56kg at $3.52. Racing well. Top prospects.

Last Starts 21 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
1/5	09/10/2026	47	MDN CLM FM 3U	$76,149.00	Keeneland	1710m	Fast	Rafael Bejarano	56kg	1:47.43	4-1-1	5	1. Watershed Moment 2. Lunar Loop 3. Wangshu	9.3L	$3.52
5/9	23/08/2026	79	MDN CLM FM 3U	$53,495.00	Ellis Park	1308m	Fast	Tyler Gaffalione	56kg	1:18.57	1-3-5	8	1. She's Gotta Go 2. Lexico 3. Crystal Frost	7.8L	$2.93
4/6	05/06/2026	21	MDN CLM FM 3U	$93,445.00	Churchill Downs	1609m	Fast	Rafael Bejarano	56.5kg	1:36.96	1-3-4	3	1. Lost Chord 2. Max 3. Authentic Beauty	9.8L	$3.33
2/7	15/05/2026	28	MDN CLM FM 3U	$93,575.00	Churchill Downs	1710m	Fast	Rafael Bejarano	56.5kg	1:46.89	1-1-2	4	1. Buckeye Bombshell 2. Watershed Moment 3. River Rise	1.8L	$3.75
2/6	17/04/2026	40	MDN CLM FM 3U	$80,058.00	Keeneland	1710m	Fast	Flavien Prat	57kg	1:45.95	2-2-2	5	1. Starwood 2. Watershed Moment 3. She's Gotta Go	8.8L	$7.44
2/7	08/03/2026	23	MDN CLM FM 35	$29,494.00	Santa Anita Park	1609m	Fast	Kyle Frey	57kg	1:40.32	2-2-2	3	1. Makenarita 2. Watershed Moment 3. Blame Eve	2.8L	$9.90

Quinn's Promise (3)x4x3632756

Trainer: Steven Asmussen 12 mths 16: 1-1-5

Jockey: Luis Saez

Weight: 55kgs

4 yo Bay M

Sire: PROMISES FULFILLED (USA)

Dam: TIZ CECILE (USA)

Dam's Sire: Tiznow

Stats

Prize Money$161,991.00

Avg $$10,124.44

Win %6.25%

Place %43.75%

Career16: 1-1-5

Track6: 0-0-1

Distance7: 0-0-2

Tr / Dist2: 0-0-0

1st Up3: 0-0-2

2nd Up2: 1-0-0

Firm11: 0-1-4

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Most recently ran last in a small field at Keeneland on October 11 over 1710m, 16 len behind Love Knicks Hart with 55.5kg at $4.91. The run before that 5th of 7 at this track on September 10 over 1207m, 12 len behind Quick To Charm carrying 55kg at $15.74. Has the ability to take this out.

Last Starts 19 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
6/6	11/10/2026	31	CLM FM 3U	$83,333.00	Keeneland	1710m	SP	Keith J Asmussen	55.5kg	1:46.61	4-5-6	1	1. Love Knicks Hart 2. Oraia 3. French Mistress	16.3L	$4.91
5/7	10/09/2026	26	CLM FM 3U	$105,556.00	Churchill Downs	1207m	Good	Keith J Asmussen	55kg	1:10.71	7-5-5	4	1. Quick To Charm 2. Freaks Go 3. Tizianna	12.0L	$15.74
7/11	15/08/2026	29	CLM FM 3U	$57,061.00	Ellis Park	1207m	Fast	Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr	55.5kg	1:11.59	11-10-7	4	1. Noroomformischief 2. Poppy Woppy 3. Brunia	8.0L	$3.81
2/10	17/07/2026	47	CLM FM 3U	$58,055.00	Ellis Park	1308m	Fast	Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr	55.5kg	1:18.10	5-1-2	5	1. Ducat 2. Quinn's Promise 3. Warm Up The Bus	0.1L	$4.81
3/7	31/05/2026	45	CLM FM 3U	$86,471.00	Churchill Downs	1609m	Fast	C Lanerie	56kg	1:36.12	2-3-3	1	1. Don't Be Salty 2. Galatina 3. Quinn's Promise	9.0L	$3.97
6/6	16/04/2026	48	ALLOW FM 4U	$174,672.00	Keeneland	1710m	Fast	C Lanerie	53.5kg	1:46.35	2-4-6	5	1. Union Mist 2. Clairita 3. Metfardeh	9.1L	$27.48

Mustang Lady (4)4333852423

Trainer: Steven Asmussen 12 mths 37: 1-8-6

Jockey: Keith J. Asmussen

Weight: 55kgs

6 yo Dark Bay/Brown M

Sire: TONALIST (USA)

Dam: HUNDRED YEAR STORM (USA)

Dam's Sire: War Front

Stats

Prize Money$356,674.00

Avg $$9,639.84

Win %2.70%

Place %40.54%

Career37: 1-8-6

Track12: 0-4-2

Distance9: 0-2-1

Tr / Dist5: 0-1-1

1st Up5: 1-1-0

2nd Up5: 0-0-2

Firm28: 0-5-6

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft1: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic7: 0-1-2

Comments

Form hard to fault. Comes here off a 33-day let-up. Most recently 3rd of 8 at this track on September 26 over 1308m, 1.75 len behind Ashes And Diamonds with 55kg at $8.22. The start before that 2nd of 7 at Ellis Park on July 31 over 1609m, 1.0 len behind Silvertown carrying 56kg at $3.50. Should be right in the finish.

Last Starts 34 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
3/8	26/09/2026	57	CLM FM 3U	$79,167.00	Churchill Downs	1308m	Fast	Jaime A Torres	55kg	1:18.26	7-4-3	2	1. Ashes And Diamonds 2. Getting After It 3. Mustang Lady	1.8L	$8.22
2/7	31/07/2026	37	CLM FM 3U	$39,230.00	Ellis Park	1609m	Fast	Erik Asmussen	56kg	1:38.95	6-1-2	3	1. Silvertown 2. Mustang Lady 3. Firebird Suite	1.0L	$3.50
4/7	24/06/2026	19	CLM FM 3U	$89,985.00	Churchill Downs	1609m	Fast	Johan Rosado	56kg	1:37.85	7-4-4	5	1. Daring Hope 2. Bamtwentyklater 3. Authentic Angel	5.8L	$11.21
2/7	05/06/2026	26	CLM FM 3U	$68,340.00	Churchill Downs	1710m	Fast	Keith J Asmussen	56kg	1:46.34	6-2-2	5	1. Haleakala 2. Mustang Lady 3. Honor Azteca	1.0L	$5.99
5/8	10/05/2026	11	CLM FM 3U	$50,279.00	Churchill Downs	1710m	Fast	Danny Sheehy	56kg	1:45.55	7-4-5	2	1. Theprincessfactor 2. Haleakala 3. Authentic Angel	7.3L	$5.41
8/12	29/04/2026	20	CLM FM 3U	$90,247.00	Churchill Downs	1710m	FM	Danny Sheehy	56.5kg	1:43.17	7-8-8	3	1. Kittens Stormy Gal 2. Twolatebabydoll 3. Austin High	6.9L	$20.55

Will Believe (5)4672213840

Trainer: Michael E Lauer 12 mths 10: 1-2-1

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Weight: 53.5kgs

3 yo Bay F

Sire: WAR OF WILL (USA)

Dam: ALWAYS BELIEVE (USA)

Dam's Sire: Archarcharch

Stats

Prize Money$131,693.00

Avg $$13,169.30

Win %10.00%

Place %40.00%

Career10: 1-2-1

Track2: 0-2-0

Distance0: 0-0-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up1: 0-0-0

2nd Up1: 0-0-0

Firm9: 1-2-1

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic2: 0-0-0

Comments

Returns from a 52-day let-up. Last start 10th of 12 at Kentucky on September 7 over 1408m, 9 len behind Ada Clare with 53.5kg at $105.84. Before that 4th of 8 at Colonial Downs Inner Turf on August 23 over 1609m, 0.8 len behind Emerald Spun with 53.5kg at $24.10. Can turn things around.

Last Starts 53 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
10/12	07/09/2026	15	ALLOW FM 3U	$250,000.00	Kentucky	1408m	FM	Danny Sheehy	53.5kg	1:23.13	8-11-10	10	1. Ada Clare 2. No Other Like You 3. Fiery Lucy	9.5L	$105.84
4/8	23/08/2026	15	ALLOW FM 3U	$128,388.00	Colonial Downs	1609m	FM	Jorge Ruiz	53.5kg	1:37.45	1-3-4	4	1. Emerald Spun 2. Omahamoiselle 3. Set Ablaze	0.8L	$24.10
8/11	08/08/2026	20	ALLOW FM 3U	$128,388.00	Colonial Downs	1106m	FM	Jareth Loveberry	53.5kg	1:02.68	8-10-8	3	1. The Magic Ofmovies 2. Clearly Sophia 3. Finch	4.0L	$37.50
3/7	19/07/2026	24	ALLOW FM 3U	$130,624.00	Colonial Downs	1207m	Fast	Jareth Loveberry	53.5kg	1:09.08	2-3-3	5	1. Mila Candy 2. Sunflower State 3. Will Believe	8.5L	$16.70
1/5	25/06/2026	28	MDN FM 3U	$122,036.00	Colonial Downs	1106m	Fast	Jareth Loveberry	54kg	1:03.78	2-1-1	1	1. Will Believe 2. Daenerys 3. Squirrely	0.5L	$4.70
2/10	28/05/2026	32	MDN CLM FM 3U	$79,609.00	Churchill Downs	1408m	Fast	Tyler Gaffalione	53.5kg	1:25.54	2-2-2	9	1. Nightmare Fuel 2. Will Believe 3. Cloud Number Nine	2.0L	$11.52

Bamtwentyklater (6)7442262634

Trainer: E Moger (Jnr) (USA)12 mths 14: 1-6-1

Jockey: Summer Pauly

Weight: 55kgs

4 yo Bay M

Sire: TIZ THE LAW (USA)

Dam: YOUVEGOTTOPAYTOPLA (USA)

Dam's Sire: Giant's Causeway

Stats

Prize Money$124,500.00

Avg $$8,892.86

Win %7.14%

Place %57.14%

Career14: 1-6-1

Track4: 0-1-0

Distance2: 0-1-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up2: 0-1-0

2nd Up2: 0-1-0

Firm10: 1-4-1

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Most recently 4th in a small field at Keeneland on October 11 over 1710m, 12 len behind Love Knicks Hart with 55.5kg at $7.68. Before that 3rd in a small field at Horseshoe Indianapolis on September 2 over 1609m, 2.25 len behind Fashion Designer carrying 55.5kg at $10.70. Others read better. This will test.

Last Starts 19 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
4/6	11/10/2026	39	CLM FM 3U	$83,333.00	Keeneland	1710m	SP	Summer Pauly	55.5kg	1:46.61	1-4-4	5	1. Love Knicks Hart 2. Oraia 3. French Mistress	12.8L	$7.68
3/5	02/09/2026	33	ALLOW FM 3U	$48,502.00	Indiana Downs	1609m	Fast	Summer Pauly	55.5kg	1:38.93	2-3-3	4	1. Fashion Designer 2. She's Honed In 3. Bamtwentyklater	2.4L	$10.70
6/8	31/07/2026	37	CLM FM 3U	$64,194.00	Ellis Park	1207m	Fast	Summer Pauly	53kg	1:10.54	2-6-6	1	1. Unfaithful Rose 2. Bourbon Notes 3. Ashes And Diamonds	7.3L	$11.40
2/7	24/06/2026	45	CLM FM 3U	$89,985.00	Churchill Downs	1609m	Fast	Summer Pauly	54kg	1:37.85	1-5-2	4	1. Daring Hope 2. Bamtwentyklater 3. Authentic Angel	3.0L	$5.62
6/7	10/05/2026	49	CLM FM 3U	$86,592.00	Churchill Downs	1308m	Fast	Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr	56kg	1:18.21	2-7-6	7	1. Menkaure 2. Scribble 3. Merry Madison	7.0L	$5.74
2/8	22/03/2026	24	CLM FM 3U	$57,584.00	Oaklawn Park	1609m	Fast	Rafael Bejarano	53.5kg	1:39.57	6-2-2	4	1. Promisemeanempire 2. Bamtwentyklater 3. Catching Heat	0.3L	$3.40

Getting After It (7)x1298x8323

Trainer: M Puhich (USA)12 mths 9: 1-2-3

Jockey: Francisco Arrieta

Weight: 55kgs

4 yo Chestnut M

Sire: VIOLENCE (USA)

Dam: BANSHEE BIRDIE (USA)

Dam's Sire: Birdstone

Stats

Prize Money$147,489.00

Avg $$16,387.67

Win %11.11%

Place %66.67%

Career9: 1-2-3

Track2: 0-1-1

Distance2: 0-0-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up3: 1-0-1

2nd Up2: 0-1-1

Firm6: 1-2-2

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic3: 1-1-0

Comments

Recent form sound. Most recently sat on the pace when 3rd of 8 at Keeneland on October 16 over 1207m, 4 len behind Muffin Music with 55kg at $6.48. The start before that came from midfield; 2nd of 8 at this track on September 26 over 1308m, 1.3 len behind Ashes And Diamonds with 55kg at $7.07. Forward showing expected.

Last Starts 14 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
3/8	16/10/2026	20	CLM FM 3U	$70,402.00	Keeneland	1207m	Fast	Francisco Arrieta	55kg	1:12.17	2-3-3	6	1. Muffin Music 2. Beauxbatons 3. Getting After It	4.1L	$6.48
2/8	26/09/2026	18	CLM FM 3U	$79,167.00	Churchill Downs	1308m	Fast	Francisco Arrieta	55kg	1:18.26	4-5-2	1	1. Ashes And Diamonds 2. Getting After It 3. Mustang Lady	1.3L	$7.07
3/8	08/09/2026	39	CLM FM 3U	$33,333.00	Indiana Downs	1207m	Fast	Danny Sheehy	55.5kg	1:10.00	8-6-3	7	1. What's Up Dog 2. Cavatelli 3. Getting After It	8.0L	$9.70
8/8	31/07/2026	481	CLM FM 3U	$64,194.00	Ellis Park	1207m	Fast	Danny Sheehy	55.5kg	1:10.54	7-8-8	4	1. Unfaithful Rose 2. Bourbon Notes 3. Ashes And Diamonds	12.8L	$15.50
8/9	06/04/2025	15	ALLOW OCLM F 3	$191,693.00	Keeneland	1710m	SP	Carlos Barbosa	53.5kg	1:45.54	6-7-8	3	1. Paris Lily 2. Liam In The Dust 3. Especially	18.3L	$26.32
9/11	22/03/2025	16	LR OPEN F 3	$475,436.00	Turfway Park	1710m	Fast	J J Hernandez	55.5kg	1:44.65	9-8-9	6	1. Bless The Broken 2. As Catch Can 3. Admit	7.4L	$53.98