Churchill Downs Race 1 - Race 1 - Claiming
MANAGE XPECTATIONS (2) made progress last time out, finishing 3.5 lengths from the winner in third when she did her best work late at the end of 1609m at Ellis Park. Taking on a better line-up this time but she is good enough to play a major role. BEACH BUNNY (6) doesn't win out of turn but ran a nice race last time out over 1609m at Ellis Park (Turf), finishing second and beaten 2.5 lengths after being in contention on the turn. This looks a sterner test than last time but on her best form she is one of the chief contenders. MUSTANG LADY (7) was among the placegetters fresh up on turf at Ellis Park but missed the frame last time, again on turf, when finishing a 4 length fourth at Ellis Park over 1609m. Will be hard to beat back to the dirt here. SUPER COSTLY (4) is a three-year-old filly who is having her first run for the Rodolphe Brisset stable. Hasn't raced since finishing in the placings at Delaware Park (Dirt) ten weeks ago. Hasn't trialled publicly but is in a nice race. Shapes as a top-three chance.

Jockey: Luan Machado
Weight: 55.5kgs
Stats
Comments
First-up. Finished off last preparation second last of 7 at this track November 9 over 1609m, 17 len behind Vinobello with 55kg at $5.33. When resuming last campaign second of 8 at Ellis Park July 22 2024 over 1609m, 4 len behind Wits And Wagers with 56kg at $11.62.
Last Starts 308 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6/7 | 09/11/2024 | 50 | CLM FM 3U | $100,457.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | Fast | Rafael Bejarano | 55kg | 1:37.59 | 5-6-6 | 1 |
| 17.3L | $5.33 |
4/6 | 20/09/2024 | 27 | CLM FM 3U | $97,059.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | Fast | Rafael Bejarano | 55.5kg | 1:43.35 | 1-4-4 | 3 |
| 10.3L | $2.90 |
2/7 | 24/08/2024 | 33 | CLM FM 3U | $55,300.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | Fast | Rafael Bejarano | 56kg | 1:38.17 | 2-2-2 | 7 |
| 2.0L | $4.24 |
2/8 | 22/07/2024 | 100 | CLM FM 3U | $54,135.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | Fast | Rogelio Miranda | 56kg | 1:38.65 | 1-3-2 | 1 |
| 3.8L | $11.62 |
6/6 | 13/04/2024 | 21 | CLM FM 3U | $92,166.00 | Keeneland | 1408m | Fast | J Castanon | 56kg | 1:25.12 | 1-6-6 | 6 |
| 24.5L | $27.63 |
10/10 | 23/03/2024 | 45 | LR OPEN FM 4U | $384,615.00 | Turfway Park | 1710m | Fast | J Castanon | 54.5kg | 1:43.96 | 9-10-10 | 8 |
| 22.8L | $91.12 |

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Last start 3rd of 8 at Ellis Park on August 16 over 1609m, 3.5 len behind Lady Blake with 53.5kg at $2.11. The race before that got back early 5th of 7 at this track on June 19 over 1710m, 6 len behind Purloin carrying 53.5kg at $6.61. Can improve again.
Last Starts 28 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3/8 | 16/08/2025 | 58 | CLM FM 3U | $62,016.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | FM | J R Leparoux | 53.5kg | 1:34.90 | 1-6-3 | 2 |
| 3.5L | $2.11 |
5/7 | 19/06/2025 | 25 | CLM FM 3U | $118,196.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | Fast | Edgar Morales | 53.5kg | 1:43.83 | 6-6-5 | 1 |
| 6.5L | $6.61 |
10/11 | 25/05/2025 | 66 | ALLOW F 3 | $129,688.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | Fast | Edgar Morales | 54.5kg | 1:37.20 | 3-11-10 | 5 |
| 19.2L | $6.54 |
1/7 | 20/03/2025 | 25 | MDN OCLM F 3 | $44,374.00 | Fairgrounds | 1509m | FM | Edgar Morales | 54.5kg | 1:31.06 | 5-2-1 | 1 |
| 0.1L | $3.00 |
2/5 | 23/02/2025 | 34 | MDN OCLM F 3 | $46,699.00 | Fairgrounds | 1673m | SP | D Cannon | 54.5kg | 1:45.31 | 3-1-2 | 2 |
| 0.1L | $2.50 |
9/10 | 20/01/2025 | 32 | MDN F 3 | $93,548.00 | Fairgrounds | 1207m | Fast | D Cannon | 54.5kg | 1:10.99 | 5-10-9 | 8 |
| 13.5L | $27.80 |

Jockey: Declan Cannon
Weight: 55.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Third-up today. Resuming 4th in a small field at Saratoga on August 1 over 1408m, 10 len behind Fortuna Mia carrying 56kg at $4.25. Second run from a spell ran last of 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis on August 26 over 1710m, 20 len behind Mo Expectations carrying 55.5kg at $12.60.
Last Starts 18 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/10 | 26/08/2025 | 25 | ALLOW FM 3U | $52,713.00 | Indiana Downs | 1710m | FM | D Cannon | 55.5kg | 1:40.61 | 4-9-10 | 5 |
| 20.0L | $12.60 |
4/6 | 01/08/2025 | 105 | CLM FM 3U | $89,922.00 | Saratoga | 1408m | Fast | Luis Saez | 56kg | 1:24.53 | 4-4-4 | 1 |
| 10.0L | $4.25 |
12/12 | 18/04/2025 | 41 | ALLOW FM 4U | $191,693.00 | Keeneland | 1710m | FM | D Cannon | 53.5kg | 1:42.54 | 5-10-12 | 11 |
| 17.5L | $55.67 |
6/7 | 08/03/2025 | 222 | ALLOW FM 4U | $85,072.00 | Fairgrounds | 1006m | Fast | D Cannon | 54.5kg | 0:58.41 | 3-6-6 | 6 |
| 9.0L | $3.90 |
5/6 | 29/07/2024 | 44 | ALLOW FM 3U | $109,774.00 | Ellis Park | 1308m | M | Jaime A Torres | 53.5kg | 1:16.43 | 6-5-5 | 1 |
| 14.0L | $4.69 |
7/12 | 15/06/2024 | 43 | ALLOW FM 3U | $191,843.00 | Churchill Downs | 1106m | FM | Rafael Bejarano | 53.5kg | 1:03.34 | 4-7-7 | 7 |
| 5.5L | $6.10 |

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Weight: 53.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Back from a spell. Only had one start last preparation 3rd of 7 at Delaware Park on July 3 over 1673m, 4 len behind Sandpiper Memories with 53kg at $14.10. When resuming last campaign 9th of 12 at Oaklawn Park on March 30 over 1207m, 16 len behind Mendela carrying 55.5kg at $109.
Last Starts 72 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3/7 | 03/07/2025 | 63 | ALLOW OCLM FM 3U | $70,336.00 | Delaware Park | 1673m | Fast | Julio A Hernandez | 53kg | 1:42.22 | 6-2-3 | 5 |
| 4.0L | $14.10 |
1/9 | 01/05/2025 | 13 | MDN CLM F 3 | $93,750.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1609m | Fast | Emmanuel Esquivel | 55.5kg | 1:40.09 | 3-2-1 | 6 |
| 0.3L | $19.70 |
7/8 | 18/04/2025 | 19 | MDN OCLM FM 3U | $103,834.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | Fast | Rafael Bejarano | 54.5kg | 1:11.83 | 8-6-7 | 1 |
| 13.3L | $8.40 |
9/12 | 30/03/2025 | 169 | MDN F 3 | $174,326.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | Fast | Tyler W Bacon | 55.5kg | 1:10.58 | 10-10-9 | 8 |
| 16.3L | $109.00 |
7/10 | 12/10/2024 | 31 | MDN F 2 | $144,509.00 | Keeneland | 1207m | Fast | Francisco Arrieta | 54kg | 1:11.97 | 5-7-7 | 8 |
| 17.5L | $71.07 |
4/8 | 11/09/2024 | - | MDN F 2 | $58,824.00 | Delaware Park | 1207m | Fast | Cecily Evans | 54.5kg | 1:14.49 | 8-4-4 | 2 |
| 9.3L | $5.40 |

Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
Weight: 55.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Comes off a 53 day let-up. Last start 6th of 8 at Ellis Park on July 21 over 1609m, 4 len behind Spying carrying 56kg at $22.12. The start before that scored a big 4 len win at this track June 19 over 1308m defeating Sight Adjust carrying 56kg at $5.87.
Last Starts 54 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6/8 | 21/07/2025 | 32 | CLM FM 3U | $68,807.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | Fast | Luan Machado | 56kg | 1:38.15 | 7-2-6 | 8 |
| 4.2L | $22.12 |
1/5 | 19/06/2025 | 51 | MDN CLM FM 3U | $88,647.00 | Churchill Downs | 1308m | Fast | Luan Machado | 56kg | 1:16.79 | 1-1-1 | 2 |
| 4.3L | $5.87 |
2/11 | 29/04/2025 | 40 | MDN CLM FM 3U | $55,911.00 | Churchill Downs | 1609m | Fast | Luan Machado | 57kg | 1:35.92 | 1-2-2 | 9 |
| 4.3L | $9.67 |
4/6 | 20/03/2025 | 20 | MDN CLM FM 3U | $29,319.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Chase Miller | 57kg | 1:42.20 | 2-2-4 | 5 |
| 5.3L | $3.76 |
7/10 | 28/02/2025 | 62 | MDN CLM FM 3U | $39,775.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Chase Miller | 57kg | 1:42.77 | 4-3-7 | 6 |
| 7.8L | $28.36 |
6/11 | 28/12/2024 | 92 | MDN CLM FM 3U | $38,059.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | Fast | Chase Miller | 55.5kg | 1:11.83 | 7-6-6 | 3 |
| 6.7L | $6.96 |

Jockey: Edgar Morales
Weight: 55.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Most recently held ground to the line 2nd of 8 at Ellis Park on August 16 over 1609m, 2.5 len behind Lady Blake with 56kg at $7.09. The start before that 5th of 10 at Ellis Park on July 3 over 1609m, 1.1 len behind Whappen carrying 56kg at $10.28. Nice effort last time.
Last Starts 28 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/8 | 16/08/2025 | 44 | CLM FM 3U | $62,016.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | FM | Edgar Morales | 56kg | 1:34.90 | 2-1-2 | 4 |
| 2.5L | $7.09 |
5/10 | 03/07/2025 | 22 | CLM FM 3U | $61,162.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | FM | Rafael Bejarano | 56kg | 1:35.81 | 5-1-5 | 9 |
| 1.1L | $10.28 |
5/8 | 11/06/2025 | 46 | ALLOW FM 3U | $129,082.00 | Churchill Downs | 1408m | Fast | Luan Machado | 56kg | 1:22.03 | 7-6-5 | 3 |
| 9.3L | $23.90 |
6/8 | 26/04/2025 | 16 | ALLOW FM 3U | $99,042.00 | Churchill Downs | 1408m | Fast | Irving Moncada | 54kg | 1:23.17 | 8-6-6 | 6 |
| 11.8L | $7.41 |
4/7 | 10/04/2025 | 84 | ALLOW FM 3U | $87,859.00 | Keeneland | 1207m | M | Irving Moncada | 54kg | 1:10.87 | 6-5-4 | 6 |
| 4.3L | $14.85 |
8/9 | 16/01/2025 | 56 | ALLOW FM 4U | $130,645.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | Fast | Gavin Ashton | 55kg | 1:12.62 | 8-6-8 | 6 |
| 14.6L | $21.13 |

Jockey: Jaime Torres
Weight: 55.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Third-up today. Resuming 2nd of 10 at Ellis Park on July 3 over 1609m, 0.3 len behind Whappen with 53.5kg at $19.02. Last start 4th of 8 at Ellis Park on August 16 over 1609m, 4 len behind Lady Blake with 56kg at $6.11.
Last Starts 28 days since last start
Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4/8 | 16/08/2025 | 44 | CLM FM 3U | $62,016.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | FM | Irving Moncada | 56kg | 1:34.90 | 5-5-4 | 1 |
| 4.0L | $6.11 |
2/10 | 03/07/2025 | 83 | CLM FM 3U | $61,162.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | FM | Irving Moncada | 53.5kg | 1:35.81 | 7-4-2 | 5 |
| 0.3L | $19.02 |
4/12 | 11/04/2025 | 48 | CLM FM 3U | $78,275.00 | Keeneland | 1308m | M | J R Leparoux | 56kg | 1:18.06 | 12-5-4 | 3 |
| 8.0L | $5.01 |
5/8 | 22/02/2025 | 30 | CLM FM 3U | $51,369.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Fernando De La Cruz | 56.5kg | 1:41.43 | 5-5-5 | 7 |
| 7.1L | $3.41 |
2/9 | 23/01/2025 | 28 | CLM FM 4U | $51,452.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Fernando De La Cruz | 54.5kg | 1:39.93 | 7-5-2 | 7 |
| 1.8L | $6.65 |
7/10 | 26/12/2024 | 27 | CLM FM 3U | $53,929.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | Fast | Gerardo Corrales | 55kg | 1:39.11 | 2-5-7 | 3 |
| 5.9L | $7.31 |